A very warm stretch in the middle of October has the temperature running a couple of degrees above normal for the month. It looks like we’ll see more relatively warm weather in the middle of next week, and the month is likely to finish 2-3° warmer than normal. Thankfully, there has also been a decent amount of rain, and although the Drought Monitor is keeping most of the area in a moderate drought, but that should change soon based on the recent periodic rain.
The weekend looks fairly quiet with cooler weather on Sunday. There is a slight chance of a shower Saturday night or Sunday morning. Monday through Wednesday will be nice, with a warming trend – especially inland. Highs may reach the low 70s (more than 10° above normal) inland on Wednesday. It will be considerably cooler near the coast with a southwest breeze. A cold front coming through Wednesday night may scare up a few showers, but widespread soaking rain is unlikely. It will not be much cooler on Thursday as fair weather returns. Highs should reach the 60s.
The forecast is tricky for Halloween. There are signs that a strong disturbance will move from central Canada into the Northeast, but the timing of the system is questionable. At this point, rain cannot be ruled out, and if the system moves more quickly than now forecast, then it could be dry with a chilly breeze for trick or treaters. The best-case scenario is for the system to move slowly and for Thursday’s fine weather to carry over for another day.
There is a decent shot of a legit cold shot during the first weekend of November. The temperature could fall below freezing in Providence for the first time this season. Any cold snap is likely to be short-lived because the pattern looks progressive and variable through the first week of November.
