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February 10th Update

Soggy weekend; Relatively mild next week

We’re ten days into February and, so far, it’s has been a wet month with near normal temperatures. Looking ahead, it is highly likely that this month will finish with above normal temperatures and well above normal precipitation. Clouds and a few showers on Saturday will give way to heavier rain Saturday night and Sunday. Expect 1-2″ of rain in Southern New England. It’s not enough for widespread river flooding, but some small streams may rise in the areas that get a couple of inches of rain.

1-2″ of rain likely this weekend

Dry skies return by dawn on Monday. Highs will be in the low to mid 40s. It will turn a bit cooler on Tuesday before a midweek warm-up. Valentine’s Day will be in the 40s with a good chance of dry skies. Thursday looks like the warmest day of the week. Highs may be well into the 50s inland, and close to 50 near the coast.

A handful of EPS members bring a snow threat over the Presidents’ Day weekend

It turns cooler late in the week. I’m still leery of a storm at some point over the Presidents’ Day weekend. It’s far too early for specifics, but the EPS ensembles continue to hint at the potential for snow/rain sometime between late Saturday and Monday.

What started out as a cold and snowy winter has taken a milder turn in the past month. It’s possible chilly, and potentially stormy, weather returns late in February through mid March. The North Atlantic Oscillation is still projected to be negative, and that can lead to cold weather in the Northeast. I would not drive the final nail in the coffin of this winter just yet.

EPS weeklies control run is not bullish on snow for the rest of the winter in RI and SE MA. The EPS mean is closer to normal.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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