Right Weather Pro

March 15th Update

Chilly and dry through the weekend

Cold air pours out of central Canada into Southern New England for the next few days. While it will not be as bitter as mid-winter, it will stay chilly for mid-March. A gusty northwest breeze keeps it feeling 5-15° colder than the real air temperature Friday through Sunday.

Expect sun and clouds Friday through Monday. Low temperatures will be in the 20s, and highs will be in the 30s to low 40s at best. Wind chills will be in the 20s to near 30 Friday through Sunday. There is no chance of precipitation from Friday through, at least, Monday.

The forecast focus shifts to a complex storm system in the middle of next week. There is a lot of uncertainty about how the slow-moving weather system will evolve between Tuesday and Thursday. More snow/rain is likely in New England sometime between Tuesday afternoon and Thursday, with Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday the most likely time for precipitation.

EPS hinting at a “flatter” solution next week with a weaker storm heading out to sea south of Southern New England with just a glancing blow Wed night into Thu. There’s still plenty of time for that to change.

The exact storm track remains very uncertain. Everything from a miss or glancing blow to a full-fledged snowy Nor’easter is still on the table. The computer models are having a tough time discerning how jet stream energy will  evolve as it nears the East Coast in the midweek. A cool weather pattern persists through the end of next workweek.

Looking ahead…the EPS weeklies show relatively cool weather lasting through most or all of April. The latest run also shows a relatively dry pattern in Southern New England. The EPS control run has less than 6″ of snow in the next month for all of RI and SE MA, but the EPS Mean is a little higher.

EPS Control run 32 day snow total
EPS Mean 46 day precipitation anomaly
EPS Mean 46 Day temperature anomaly – cool in the Eastern US

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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