A couple of disturbances in the tropics are showing potential for development in the coming days. The National Hurricane Center is watching two tropical waves – one midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, and the other over Western Africa will emerge into the eastern Atlantic Ocean on Friday. Both systems have a low to moderate chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next five days. In all likelihood, there will not be a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin before September 1. The first hurricane of the season has formed on or after September 1 only 25 times in the past 161 years.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS LIMITED. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES. AFTER THAT TIME...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD INHIBIT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER WESTERN AFRICA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST ON FRIDAY. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
