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Gulf of Mexico disturbance likely to intensify

Another tropical wave is crossing the Yucatán Peninsula and heading for the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This area has been a fertile breeding ground for tropical cyclones this season. The most recent storm, Ingrid, brought flooding rain, pounding surf, and strong winds to eastern Mexico last week. The current system that the National Hurricane Center is monitoring will move into the Gulf of Mexico in the next couple of days. Conditions will be favorable for a tropical storm to form. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 70% chance of forming before Friday evening, and an 80% chance of forming in the next five days.

In the long-range, the storm is forecasted by many models to curve east toward the Southeastern United States. Right now, it looks like it will stay south of Southern New England if it moves into the Atlantic Ocean early next week.


Computer model forecasts for Invest 95

From the National Hurricane Center
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING NEAR AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO JUST WEST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THURSDAY...
AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS LOW TOMORROW.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH...AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.  THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY SPREAD HEAVY RAIN OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MEXICO AND COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED BY
TORRENTIAL RAIN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
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