A disturbance crossing the Yucatán Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche is likely to become a tropical cyclone in the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives the cluster of thunderstorms a 60-80% chance of intensifying in the next five days. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will be called Ingrid. Computer models track the storm inland into eastern Mexico – an area susceptible to mudslides from heavy rain. Veracruz has already seen a couple of weak tropical storms this year.
Computer model forecasts for Invest 93
From the National Hurricane CenterTROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013 SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS READY TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.