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Gulf of Mexico disturbance likely to intensify

A disturbance crossing the Yucatán Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche is likely to become a tropical cyclone in the next few days. The National Hurricane Center gives the cluster of thunderstorms a 60-80% chance of intensifying in the next five days. If it becomes a tropical storm, it will be called Ingrid. Computer models track the storm inland into eastern Mexico – an area susceptible to mudslides from heavy rain. Veracruz has already seen a couple of weak tropical storms this year.


Computer model forecasts for Invest 93

From the National Hurricane Center
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013

SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF
EASTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS READY TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE LATER
TODAY...IF NECESSARY. 
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