Ingrid became the second hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season on Saturday afternoon. The storm has winds of 75 mph and is moving very slowly north in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. The storm is expected to turn to the west and move inland into eastern Mexico early next week. Ingrid may intensify 85 mph before making landfall. In addition to the strong winds and potential storm surge, the storm will be a prolific rain maker because of its slow forward speed. 10-15″ of rain, with localized amounts of 25″ will fall in an area of eastern Mexico that is prone to flooding and mudslides.
Computer model forecasts for Tropical Storm Ingrid
From the National Hurricane CenterHURRICANE INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 ...INGRID BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2013 SEASON... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 94.4W ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM SE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE GULF COAST. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES...AND FROM SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM COATZACOALCOS TO SOUTH OF TUXPAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.4 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... INGRID WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. NOAA BUOY 42055 LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES...110 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF INGRID RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 42 MPH...68 KM/H. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY...ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN BY LATE SUNDAY. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.