Tropical Storm ingrid formed in the Gulf of Mexico about 60 miles north of Veracruz, Mexico on Friday, September 13, 2013. The storm was drifting west at 2 mph, with a turn to the north expected soon. The storm will continue moving very slowly, and the center of circulation may stay offshore through the weekend. As a result, the storm will keep up its intensity or gradually strengthen over the warm waters of the Gulf.
The main threat from Ingrid, and it is a significant one, is for deadly flooding to occur because of tremendous rainfall totals in eastern Mexico. In the next five days Ingrid may produce 10-25 inches of rains in an area prone to flash flooding and mudslides. The heavy rain will extend north into southernmost Texas where 3-6″ of rain may fall.
Computer model forecasts for Tropical Storm Ingrid
From the National Hurricane CenterTROPICAL STORM INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 ...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.4N 95.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO CABO ROJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS STRENGTHEND AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM INGRID...THE NINTH NAMED CYCLONE OF THE SEASON. AT 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...INGRID WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.