The weather Monday morning certainly reminded us that it is indeed fall in Southern New England. So far this month the temperature is running 4° above normal in the Providence area, but it dipped into the 30s for the first time in five months before dawn on Monday. Overall, you can expect more of a fall-like feel to the weather in the next couple of weeks. The jet stream pattern will become more amplified in the last ten days of the month, and that should lead to a roller coaster temperature-wise with warm-ups, cool-downs, and rain between the airmass changes.
We’ll be watching for phasing of the northern and southern branches of the jet stream from the end of this week through next week. If the phasing occurs over the Northeast, then there is a decent chance of widespread rain from a more organized system. If the phasing does not occur, then the northern branch systems will bring the threat of a few showers, but not a widespread soaking rain. Right now, we’re leaning toward no phasing with the late-weekend system.