16″ of snow fell in the first 16 days of February in the Providence area, and it looks like the 1″ per day average will continue with more accumulating snow in the forecast for Tuesday. A small, but potent, disturbance will pass along the south coast on Tuesday spreading snow into RI and SE MA by midday.
The precipitation type may be an issue at the coast with a strong east-southeast breeze developing. It will be all snow inland, and it should come down heavily enough to stick to pavement. The evening commute could be slowed considerably by accumulating snow north of Providence to Worcester and Boston.
Steady snow will begin between 10am-12pm, and it may be moderate to heavy for a few hours during the afternoon. It will be a quick-hitting storm, and snow should taper to flurries between 6pm-8pm before ending by late in the evening. The wind will likely be out of the east-southeast, which is not favorable for accumulating snow near the coast. However, the precipitation intensity may be enough to overcome the borderline temperatures and time of day.
The snow accumulation forecast is difficult with this storm based on the subtle, but significant differences, in wind direction and temperature that coincide with the storm’s track. If the storm stays just off the south coast there is a better chance of accumulating snow all the way to the coast. If the storm’s center hugs the coast or moves inland, then snow will likely change to a mix or rain and have difficulty accumulating from the coast to Providence. Our best estimate has at least a couple of inches in the Providence area, with higher totals in Northern RI and interior MA.