A few measly showers on Sunday brought the rain total for the month to just over a half-inch in the Providence area. If there is no rain for the rest of the month, which is possible, then this will be the second driest September on record, trailing only 1914 when there was 0.48″ for the month. It looks like there are two shots at rain during the rest of September. First, we’ll keep an eye on a system that develops along the Southeast Coast and drifts north late in the workweek. Right now, it looks like it stays just offshore, but the system that brought rain on Sunday also looked like it was going to stay away. These systems have a tendency to drift closer to the coast than what the models predict a few days out.
Overall, the pattern will be warmer than normal for the rest of the month and early October. The dry and pleasant weather through the middle of this week is actually pretty close to normal (70°/50°) for this time of the year.
The next best chance of rain is in the middle of next week when a system may move out of the Southeastern United States and up the Appalachians. It’s 8-9 days away, but the European model has hinted at it for a few days. The GFS model keeps the Northeast dry through most of next week, too. Both the GFS and European have a cold front moving through the Northeast with showers sometime between October 3-5.
The tropics remain unusually quiet and there are no strong signs that anything significant will develop in the next two weeks.