October is off to a rainier start than September, and that is good news for drought-parched Southern New England. There is more rain in the forecast for the middle of this week before about 48 hours of dry weather from Wednesday afternoon into Friday. Another front will head for Southern New England and bring more showers on Friday. Right now, it looks like that front will settle south of our area for most of the Columbus Day weekend. I’m a little leery of the front drifting north or a wave of low pressure forming along the front and delivering another round of showers sometime between Saturday and Monday. It will be a seasonably cool weekend, with highs in the low 60s.
There is a decent amount of uncertainty with next week’s forecast. The pattern looks fairly slow-moving, and it’s unclear how far east a storm system will get in the middle of the week. The latest indications are that it may be west of Southern New England for a while, but that is just a trend. There will also be a disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean that could bear watching if it drifts northwest to off the Carolina coast. Once again, it looks like the best chance of showers is in the midweek.
Both the GFS and European model are hinting at a cold shot around October 20. It does not look like it will last long, but it may be the one that puts an end to the growing season in most of Southern New England. It’s that time of the year!