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Long-Range Forecast – July 12

The Dog Days of Summer are here. After a cool stretch this weekend, it will feel more like mid July during this workweek. Most of Southeastern New England has seen just 50-70% of the normal precipitation in the past 90 days. All of Rhode Island and Southeastern Massachusetts except for Nantucket is “Abnormally Dry”, just one stage below a moderate drought.

The weather pattern through early next week features typical mid-summer heat and humidity. There will be a few disturbances passing through the Northeast between Thursday and early next week. While none of them are expected to bring widespread rain, showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Friday. It also looks like there may be scattered showers on Sunday.

The weather looks dry and seasonable early next week. A storm developing near the Mid-Atlantic coast in the middle to end of next workweek could drift north and bring rain to Southern New England. That is the best shot of steady rain in the next 10-14 days.

The pattern does not look as warm between July 20-25. It will likely be seasonable, and somewhat humid. As we get later into July, we need to keep an eye on the tropics, and the long-range models do not suggest anything developing near the Eastern Seaboard in late July.

European model has a storm forming in the Mid-Atlantic next week
Significant rainfall deficit in Southern New England over the past three months.
Low probability of more than 1″ of rain in RI and SE MA through early next week.
Moderate to severe drought conditions in interior Southern New England
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