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Storm Prediction Center: 15% chance of severe storms in SNE

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK is closely monitoring a potentially volatile weather situation in the Northeast Thursday afternoon and night. A very warm, muggy airmass will give fuel for thunderstorms, and an approaching cold front may offer the spark necessary to set off strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, torrential downpours, and frequent lightning. There is also a slight risk of tornadoes in the Berkshires and Northern New England.

Thunderstorms will be scattered and inland on Thursday afternoon. An organized line of storms will move through Southern New England Thursday night. It may weaken as it approaches the I-95 corridor and coast.

Most of the Northeast is in a 15% risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday PM into Friday AM
Most of the Northeast is in a 15% risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday PM into Friday AM

The following is a technical discussion on the severe weather potential in the Northeast from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK

 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1120 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013

   VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
   NORTHEAST...

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL
   JET STREAKS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH
   THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE
   AMPLIFICATION OF THE PARENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE
   NERN U.S.  IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT FROM SWRN ONTARIO SWWD
   THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
   EWD/SEWD...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC
   COASTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY
   OVERTAKE A LEE TROUGH RESIDING FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY TO THE MID
   ATLANTIC PIEDMONT REGION. 

   ...NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

   TSTMS ONGOING ALONG AND EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH FROM ERN PA/NJ NEWD
   INTO NEW ENGLAND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   TODAY AS A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING
   TO PROMOTE MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  FARTHER W...INCREASING
   HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM
   MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY ARE SUPPORTING THE INTENSIFICATION OF A
   PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS FROM THE FINGER LAKES OF NY INTO WRN PA. 
   THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING TODAY WHILE
   PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

   THE STRONGEST MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW --AND RESULTANT VERTICAL
   SHEAR-- WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WHERE
   A MIXTURE OF MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WINDS. 
   BASED ON THE CURRENT VAD DATA FROM PBZ...THE SRN EXTENT OF
   HIGHER-MOMENTUM TROPOPSHERIC FLOW EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS WRN
   PA...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO A
   FORWARD-PROPAGATING QLCS ACROSS NY/PA WHERE CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

   MORE DISORGANIZED STORM MODES ARE ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF THE
   MASON-DIXON LINE OWING TO DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND GENERALLY
   POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF THE
   HIGH-PW ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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