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Storm Prediction Considering Severe T-Storm or Tornado Watch

Late this afternoon the Storm Prediction Center was considering putting most of Southern New England in a Severe Weather (either thunderstorm or tornado) Watch. Western Connecticut and Massachusetts are already in a Tornado Watch until 11pm.

It’s a borderline situation for our area. The wind speed off the surface is conducive to severe weather, but there may be a thin layer of relatively stable air near the surface that prevents the weather from really getting wild this evening. Here is the update from the Storm Prediction Center.

 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0341 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012

   AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF VT...WRN/SRN NH...A LARGE PART OF
   MA...ERN CT...RI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 182041Z - 182245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AREAS TO THE EAST OF WW 646 WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE
   POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...WITH 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-55 KT OWING TO
   A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM...A CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT MAY
   EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND EAST OF WW 646.
   HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION
   WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT DOWNSTREAM OF WW
   646 EXISTS...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.
   REGARDLESS...THE INFLUX OF RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/WARMER
   AIR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD SOME THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND PERHAPS
   ONE OR TWO TORNADOES INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS A SQUALL LINE
   ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND WAA-RELATED CONVECTION EVOLVES AHEAD OF
   THE LINE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL
   INCREASE IN BUOYANCY/SVR THREAT.

Keep track of any wild weather tonight by using the Interactive Radar at rightweather.net, or by downloading the free iPad, iPhone, or Android app.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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