Late this afternoon the Storm Prediction Center was considering putting most of Southern New England in a Severe Weather (either thunderstorm or tornado) Watch. Western Connecticut and Massachusetts are already in a Tornado Watch until 11pm.
It’s a borderline situation for our area. The wind speed off the surface is conducive to severe weather, but there may be a thin layer of relatively stable air near the surface that prevents the weather from really getting wild this evening. Here is the update from the Storm Prediction Center.
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0341 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...A LARGE PART OF VT...WRN/SRN NH...A LARGE PART OF MA...ERN CT...RI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 182041Z - 182245Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...AREAS TO THE EAST OF WW 646 WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DISCUSSION...WITH 0-1-KM BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-55 KT OWING TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET STREAM...A CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND EAST OF WW 646. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT DOWNSTREAM OF WW 646 EXISTS...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES. REGARDLESS...THE INFLUX OF RELATIVELY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/WARMER AIR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD SOME THREAT FOR SVR WINDS AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO TORNADOES INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AS A SQUALL LINE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND WAA-RELATED CONVECTION EVOLVES AHEAD OF THE LINE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL INCREASE IN BUOYANCY/SVR THREAT.