The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released an updated United States outlook for the upcoming winter on Thursday, November 15. The forecast did not change from the October outlook for most of the country, including here in the Northeast. Some notable changes are found in the Upper Midwest where the the forecast went from near to above normal to below normal temperatures. The overall precipitation pattern remains similar to the prior forecast with a slight shift to the north for above normal precipitation from the Gulf Coast to the Tennessee Valley. The entire Northeast remains in “Equal Chances” of above or below normal precipitation and temperatures.
In the technical discussion, the CPC forecasters note the neutral ENSO conditions that are developing in the Pacific Ocean. Earlier in the year, it appeared that an El Nino would be in place for this winter, but that has since waned and it is not expected to come back, nor is a La Nina expected to develop in the next several months. The forecasters also note the importance of the Arctic Oscillation in determining winter weather and storm tracks, and how it is unpredictable on a scale anything greater than a few weeks.
The CPC forecast correlates closely with the 30-day average of the United States’ NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) computer model.
The Right Weather winter outlook will be available before the end of November for Right Weather Pro members.