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Computer Model Trend – PM Update

Nothing like starting winter with an extraordinarily complex weather setup that features as many as three storms impacting the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast in a four day span. The computer models are having a helluva time trying to predict the timing and intensity of the upper air disturbances that will ultimately lead to some stormy Northeast weather most of next week. At this point, the forecast is being painted with a very broad brush, and the purpose of these updates is to give the weather junkie a quick fix on what some of the computer models are projecting. Remember, most computer models update twice daily, and some update four times daily, so there is a near-constant stream of new information pouring in.

My latest thoughts

  • Major timing differences on main event between CMC, GFS, and ECMWF. CMC is Mon-Tue, GFS is Tue-Tue night, ECMWF is Wed-Friday(ish)
  • GFS has an inside runner that would be all rain for the whole Megalopolis from Boston to Washington, DC. Nearest heavy snow would be in the Berkshires, with the jackpot in the Adirondacks and Northern New England
  • ECMWF has a super long-duration event that features three storms with very little time between them. The storms also become progressively stronger, with the final storm bringing heavy inland snow (outside of RI and SE MA), near hurricane wind gusts in SNE, and 3″ of rain to the coast Wednesday into Thursday
  • The 10-day snow totals for parts of NY, VT, NH, ME, and W MA are off the charts (see image) – and, frankly, seem too high given the track of the most intense storm Wed/Thu. With that track, I’d expect those totals only in the highest terrain outside of W MA, S VT, and S NH.
  • JMA (Japanese) model is on a track close to the coast, but not as tight as the GFS.
  • There is a very long way to go with this forecast. There are definitely going to be more twists and turns as we head into the weekend. Stay tuned, and when it all comes together, we’ll be sure to let you know.

12/12/12 12Z ECMWF snow forecast
12/12/12 12Z ECMWF snow forecast

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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