Rain showers moving through Southern New England Tuesday evening represent the front edge of some much milder weather that will move from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast on Wednesday. Unfortunately, that unseasonably mild air will bring with it gusty winds and some rain. The temperature will climb from the 30s early Wednesday morning to the upper 40s to mid 50s by late in the day and during the evening. It will be damp all day, with the wind increasing as the temperature climbs.
So far, January in Southern New England has been much drier than normal with only about 1.25″ of liquid precipitation at TF Green Airport. While there likely won’t be a lot of steady rain during the day Wednesday, a line of heavy showers will move through late at night. The forecast is for about an inch of rain from Tuesday evening through Thursday morning, with most of that coming late Wednesday night. Rain could impact the early-morning commute on Thursday due to some big puddles and minor poor drainage flooding.
The milder air will ride in on an increasing south-southwesterly wind. It will be windy near the coast by late Wednesday afternoon, with some 30 mph gusts possible. Farther inland, the wind will not be as much of a factor. Wednesday night, the wind will be howling over 100 mph not too far off the surface, but those extreme wind gusts are unlikely to mix all the way down to the ground. Instead, the peak wind gust potential appears to be about 50-60 mph near the coast of RI and in SE MA. A High Wind Watch remains in effect for Wednesday night, and the strongest winds are likely to occur during or just before the heaviest showers move through. In Rhode Island, the peak gusts should occur between midnight and dawn. In Southeastern Massachusetts, the strongest winds are likely to occur around dawn Thursday. It will stay windy and turn colder Thursday. The wind will shift from the southwest to west as the cold front departs.
The temperature will gradually rise during the day Wednesday, and continue rising Wednesday evening. The high for the day may occur late in the evening. Thursday’s high temperature will likely occur sometime before dawn, with the temperature falling from the 40s to the 30s on Thursday afternoon.