The most likely scenario is the first one, where it is a glancing blow that delivers some accumulating snow, but is not a whopper. This is a first look at an accumulation map for that scenario. The totals would be similar to the system that impacted Southern New England earlier in the week, with the highest amounts near the coast. This time, Nantucket would be the odds on favorite for the most snow. It would be borderline plowable in RI, and most likely plowable on Cape Cod and the islands.
There are still 48 hours and several computer model cycles to go before the first flakes fly, so some changes are likely to the details of the forecast. Regardless of the storm’s track, you can expect more very cold weather in New England this weekend. It will be in the 20s Saturday afternoon. Northerly winds will drop the temperature into the single digits to low teens by dawn Sunday, and it will probably not crack 30 degrees on Sunday afternoon – the 7th straight day below freezing in most of RI and SE MA!