A relatively small, but locally potent, storm will form south of Southern New England Monday evening. The favored area for highest snow totals is in Eastern New England, possibly along the Eastern Massachusetts coast. In Providence, it will likely be a light to moderate snowfall, with most of the accumulating snow falling between 8pm Monday and 2am Tuesday. The snow will taper to snow showers or flurries by dawn Tuesday. Below are the snow odds for the Providence Metro area including Providence the East and West Bay of Rhode Island.
The top graphic shows the odds of the final total in Providence reaching the amount shown. It is highly likely that Providence will get at least 1″ of snow, but the odds fall below 50% around 3″. While the odds are low, there is still a slight chance that the total reaches 6-8″ due to the mesoscale nature of this system. Somewhere in Southern New England will probably see amounts that high, but the odds do not favor it occurring in the Providence area.
The graphic below shows the likelihood of the final total falling within one inch of the amounts on the horizontal part of the graph. As you can deduce from the Right Weather snow forecast, the greatest likelihood is for the final total to be within and inch of 3″, hence the 2-4″ forecast.