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First Look: Weekend snow potential

The latest information available from Thursday afternoon to late Thursday evening did absolutely nothing to clarify the situation regarding the weekend weather. The range still sits between snow showers and near-blizzard conditions in E MA Saturday night. The most likely scenario may be somewhere in the middle, but we hate splitting the difference just for the sake of it. There’s too much potential to just completely discard a bigger storm from the forecast.

It look like it may be “here we go again” for Southern New England as the computer models are finally coming around to a solution that delivers accumulating, probably plowable, snow to RI, MA, and CT Saturday night into Sunday morning. All week long, the upper level air pattern has looked very risky for some snow along the Northeast coast. The computer models were having a difficult time handling the energy in the jet stream, and, as a result, most were failing to cook up a storm of much impact in Southern New England. The American computer models are singing a different tune Thursday morning.

The potential exists for a significant snowfall, but not quite to the extent of last week’s blizzard. Saturday afternoon, a fast-developing storm will form east of the Mid-Atlantic and move due north. At the same time, much colder air will be moving into Southern New England on a northerly wind. The eastern half of New England will clipped by the developing storm with some snow and wind Saturday night. There may a sharp west-east cutoff on the snow accumulations depending on where the storm forms and the track it takes to the north.

GFS Model depicts a borderline Nor'easter Saturday night
GFS Model depicts a borderline Nor’easter Saturday night with 6″+
NAM model has the storm farther out to sea, but still close enough for 4-6"
NAM model has the storm farther out to sea, but still close enough for 4-6″

Right now, we think it is likely that most of RI and E MA will have a plowable event, with the chance of more than 6″ of snow. Since this is a very tricky weather setup, this forecast comes with a little less confidence than usual. In fact, two days prior to the blizzard we had a much better idea of that storm’s impacts compared to this one. Not all of the computer models agree that the storm will form and come close enough for a moderate to high impact storm. Stay with for the latest.

Snow Potential - Right Weather
Snow Potential – Right Weather

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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