It took a while to get to where we thought the winter of 2012-2013 would be, but, eventually, Southern New England saw the snowy and cold weather that we were anticipating. Overall, we were fairly confident in the winter forecast, and, in the end, it turned out to be a decent projection. The outlook for this spring is not as clear cut, and the forecast does not come with quite as much confidence as the winter forecast did.
In the near term, it looks like a near-normal temperature trend for the first couple of weeks, with the potential for some stormy weather due to the negative NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation that should persist for a while. Eventually, the NAO should flip back to positive, and when that happens there will be a nice spring fling in the Eastern US. In fact, if it’s near normal for a few weeks, a change to warmer than normal weather will feel great because the average temperature is climbing steadily every day. It’s been a while (January 31) since the temperature cracked 50° at TF Green Airport. It should become a regular occurrence by the second half of March.
Overall, our forecast is for a warmer than normal spring in Southern New England. We also anticipate it being a bit drier than normal, but not as dry as last spring. There is minimal concern about drought conditions this spring. In fact, the river flooding potential is near to above normal given the healthy snowpack in Central and Northern New England. Plus, the ground is already fairly soaked due to a soggy and snowy month of February.
Check out the graphics and the video for more details on the Southern New England Spring Outlook.