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Long Range Forecast – March 14

Remember last March? It was ridiculously warm in Southern New England. Check out the temperatures at TF Green Airport. By the end of this month, there may have been more 70° in March 2012 than 50° days in March 2013. That is quite a turnaround. Unfortunately, this month is likely to be a lot closer to a typical Southern New England March than last year was. In short, we got spoiled! The average temperature this March may be 6-8° colder than it was last March.

MAR-12 FOR PROVIDENCE, RI (62')                     LAT=41.7N LON= 71.4W 

                 TEMPERATURE                       PRECIPITATION
          ACTUAL           NORMAL
        HI   LO  AVG     HI   LO  AVG   DEPT     AMNT   SNOW SNCVR   HDD
 1      37   26   32     43   26   35     -3     0.44    0.2    1     33
 2      35   25   30     44   26   35     -5     0.04  trace    0     35
 3      55   34   45     44   27   35    +10     0.31  trace    0     20
 4      44   32   38     44   27   35     +3     0.00    0.0    0     27
 5      41   26   34     44   27   36     -2     0.00    0.0    0     31
 6      40   19   30     45   27   36     -6     0.00    0.0    0     35
 7      58   30   44     45   27   36     +8     0.00    0.0    0     21
 8      64   50   57     45   28   36    +21     0.00    0.0    0      8
 9      58   35   47     46   28   37    +10     0.07  trace    0     18
10      41   28   35     46   28   37     -2     0.00    0.0    0     30
11      54   28   41     46   28   37     +4     0.00    0.0    0     24
12      72   35   54     46   29   38    +16     0.00    0.0    0     11
13      67   45   56     47   29   38    +18     0.01    0.0    0      9
14      64   40   52     47   29   38    +14     0.00    0.0    0     13
15      51   37   44     47   30   38     +6     0.01    0.0    0     21
16      44   35   40     48   30   39     +1    trace    0.0    0     25
17      54   38   46     48   30   39     +7     0.00    0.0    0     19
18      63   35   49     48   30   39    +10     0.00    0.0    0     16
19      73   43   58     49   31   40    +18     0.00    0.0    0      7
20      78   44   61     49   31   40    +21     0.00    0.0    0      4
21      76   46   61     49   31   40    +21     0.00    0.0    0      4
22      81   54   68     50   32   41    +27     0.00    0.0    0      0
23      70   58   64     50   32   41    +23    trace    0.0    0      1
24      61   46   54     50   32   41    +13    trace    0.0    0     11
25      50   43   47     51   33   42     +5    trace    0.0    0     18
26      57   31   44     51   33   42     +2     0.00    0.0    0     21
27      49   27   38     51   33   42     -4     0.00    0.0    0     27
28      54   32   43     52   34   43     +0     0.18    0.0    0     22
29      53   38   46     52   34   43     +3    trace    0.0    0     19
30      53   37   45     53   34   43     +2     0.00    0.0    0     20
31      42   33   38     53   35   44     -6     0.25    0.0    0     27

                     TOTALS FOR PVD   
HIGHEST TEMPERATURE   81         TOTAL PRECIP        1.31
LOWEST TEMPERATURE    19         TOTAL SNOWFALL       0.2
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 46.3         NORMAL PRECIP       5.01
DEPARTURE FROM NORM +7.4         % OF NORMAL PRECIP    26
HEATING DEGREE DAYS  577
NORMAL DEGREE DAYS   809

It looks like we’ll be catching a slight break this weekend because the Alberta Clipper that threatened Southern New England with snow/rain on Saturday will likely pass too far south to bring much, if any, steady precipitation. Instead, it will be partly cloudy and cool with highs near 40 – nearly 10° colder than normal.

Looking ahead to next week, a mix to rain storm is possible Monday night into Tuesday. It may be a decent soaker for Southern New England. If a secondary low develops near or south of SNE, then Northern New England will see mainly snow. What a year it’s been for the ski resorts in the Northeast!

Overall, the pattern stays chilly through next week, and probably into early-April. The North Atlantic Oscillation is likely to stay negative. That tips the spout of Canadian cold air into the Northeast. With colder than normal weather in place, it’s too soon to write off any more snow events this March – especially in interior SNE. Good times.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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