A warm front was moving through Southern New England with showers early Wednesday morning. During the day it is likely to get progressively more humid as a summer-like airmass slowly moves into the Northeast from the Ohio Valley. A disturbance in the jet stream will move through the Northeast late in the day and could trigger strong to severe thunderstorms from late in the afternoon through the evening. The highest likelihood of strong or severe thunderstorms in Southern New England is away from the immediate coast.
A key to the thunderstorm development will be the amount of clearing that takes place following the showers Wednesday morning. The more sunshine and warmer it gets Wednesday afternoon will help to destabilize the atmosphere. The greatest instability is likely to be away from the coast in Southern New England.
The thunderstorms could contain hail, strong damaging wind, frequent lightning, and there is a small probability (less than 5%) of tornadoes. See below from the National Weather Service on the severe weather threat Wednesday afternoon and evening.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 417 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013 CTZ002>004-MAZ002>006-008>013-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>003- 291500- HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA- WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA- EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA- WESTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH- EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HARTFORD...WINDSOR LOCKS...UNION... VERNON...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD... ORANGE...BARRE...FITCHBURG...FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...LAWRENCE... CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD... MILFORD...WORCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...AYER...JAFFREY... KEENE...MANCHESTER...NASHUA...PETERBOROUGH...WEARE...FOSTER... SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH 417 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2013 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS BREAK IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD THERE BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. TIMING...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCATION...HIGHEST CHANCE WILL BE FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS...CONNECTICUT...SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN RHODE ISLAND. HOWEVER A FEW STORMS COULD MOVE FURTHER EAST. POTENTIAL THREATS INCLUDE... * STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. * HAIL...POTENTIALLY QUARTER SIZED OR LARGER. * AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. * HEAVY RAIN...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME URBAN...POOR DRAINAGE AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. * DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
