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Computer Model Trends: Late week super soaker

The long range computer models have hinted at the potential for Gulf of Mexico storm development and late-week or weekend rain in Southern New England for a while. In case you missed it, we covered the threat in the past few Long Range Forecasts. As the forecast comes into focus, the odds of a big time soaking rain along the Eastern Seaboard are increasing. The timing of the rain is critical with all the outdoor events planned at this time of the year. The latest computer model trends have the Gulf of Mexico storm, which may become Tropical Storm Andrea, moving quickly north and out of the picture by mid-morning on Saturday.

The potential for flooding rain looks like the biggest impact from the storm. While it may get a bit windy near the coast, unless there is unforeseen intensification, the wind will not be strong enough to cause damage.

Here are some details on what the models are showing. Click on the images for larger versions. Graphics courtesy weatherbell.com.

NOAA Weather Prediction Center forecast of 2+" of rain in most of New England through Saturday night
NOAA Weather Prediction Center forecast of 2+” of rain in most of New England through Saturday night
Tropical computer models are in good agreement in taking the storm from the Gulf of Mexico to the Eastern Seaboard
Tropical computer models are in good agreement in taking the storm from the Gulf of Mexico to the Eastern Seaboard
The ECMWF (European) model has the rain moving into Northern New England by mid-morning Saturday. The result would be a decent day for drying out in Southern New England. The trend toward a faster moving system is something to monitor closely as the new information arrives.
The ECMWF (European) model has the rain moving into Northern New England by mid-morning Saturday. The result would be a decent day for drying out in Southern New England. The trend toward a faster moving system is something to monitor closely as the new information arrives.
The GFS model at 2pm Saturday has the storm out of the picture and some nice weather in Southern New England. This model forecast is the best-case scenario if you have plans on Saturday
The GFS model at 2pm Saturday has the storm out of the picture and some nice weather in Southern New England. This model forecast is the best-case scenario if you have plans on Saturday
The Canadian model is forecasting a major rain event for Southern New England. Look at the bullseye of 6+" of rain over most of SNE. While an outlier compared to the other models, that would lead to widespread river, stream, and street flooding.
The Canadian model is forecasting a major rain event for Southern New England. Look at the bullseye of 6+” of rain over most of SNE. While an outlier compared to the other models, that would lead to widespread river and stream flooding.
GFS five-day QPF (rainfall) total is lower than some other models, but still has nearly 2" of rain in Southeastern New England.
GFS five-day QPF (rainfall) total is lower than some other models, but still has nearly 2″ of rain in RI and SE MA
ECMWF Deterministic total QPF (rainfall) shows 3+" of rain in part of New England. That would likely lead to some flash flooding.
ECMWF Deterministic total QPF (rainfall): 3+” of rain in part of New England. That would likely lead to minor flooding.
The European Ensemble Prediction System total rainfall forecast for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Even after averaging all the members together, the forecast is for 2+" in a good chunk of New England. That shows the growing confidence in a substantial rain event.
The European Ensemble Prediction System total rainfall forecast for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Even after averaging all the members together, the forecast is for 2+” in a good chunk of New England. That shows the growing confidence in a substantial rain event.
European Ensemble Prediction System - most members are on board with at least 2" of rain in the Providence area
European Ensemble Prediction System – most members are on board with at least 2″ of rain in the Providence area
GEFS  - ensemble forecast shows the consistency of most members in delivering a soaking rain to the Northeast
GEFS – ensemble forecast shows the consistency of most members in delivering a soaking rain to the Northeast

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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