The National Hurricane Center continues to increase the odds that the developing storm in the Gulf of Mexico will become a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. A hurricane hunter aircraft was investigating the system Wednesday afternoon to check for tropical storm force wind speeds and a close circulation. The storm could be a tropical depression or storm as soon as this evening. The main threat from the storm is heavy rain in the Eastern United States between Thursday and Saturday as the storm moves from the Southeast to the Northeast.
Here is the 2 pm Wednesday update from the National Hurricane Center:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT WED JUN 5 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A BROAD AND ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED...HOWEVER AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM BEFORE IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY PRODUCED TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE COUPLE OF DAYS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM AND ITS EFFECTS CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND IN PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE OR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. && HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN