Dorian degenerated from a tropical storm into a tropical wave over the weekend, but the disturbance is holding together reasonably well as it moves westward north of Puerto Rico. As of 8 am Monday, the National Hurricane Center was giving the remnants of Dorian a 40% chance of regenerating into a tropical cyclone. The general westward track is expected to continue, and squally weather is likely for the Bahamas and Cuba in the coming week.
In the Pacific Ocean, weakening Tropical Storm Flossie will pass just south of Hawaii with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph.
Computer model forecasts for Dorian’s remnants
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 800 AM EDT MON JUL 29 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN... IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE STILL DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A CLOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...AND SURFACE PRESSURES REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR REGENERATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO TODAY...AND MOVE ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FORECASTER BERG