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Isolated severe weather threat Tuesday afternoon

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting Southern New England for an isolated severe weather threat on Tuesday afternoon and early evening. It is unlikely that they will issue a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, but conditions are somewhat favorable for isolated strong thunderstorms to develop in Southern New England. A disturbance approaching from the west will encounter very warm and muggy air over Southern New England. Thunderstorms will likely develop, and some of them could become strong/severe. The threat diminishes after sunset.

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Short range computer models shows more thunderstorm from late afternoon through early evening. weatherbell.com
Short range computer models shows more thunderstorm from late afternoon through early evening. weatherbell.com

The following is at technical discussion from the Storm Prediction Center regarding the severe weather potential in Southern New England.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1481
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0158 PM CDT TUE JUL 23 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN NJ...SERN NY AND LONG ISLAND...MA...CT...RI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231858Z - 232000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN NJ...SERN NY/LONG ISLAND...MA...CT...AND RI.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF
   THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR
   TO WARRANT A WW.

   DISCUSSION...WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
   AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WAS ANALYZED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON DRIFTING
   ENEWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH
   EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CLEARING SKIES DURING
   THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE AIDED IN BOOSTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO
   THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AMIDST A MOIST AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   LOW 70S. AS A RESULT...MLCAPE VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO 500-1500 J/KG
   ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM
   CLUSTERS. AT 1845Z...ONE BAND OF STORMS WAS MOVING E OFF OF THE
   APPALACHIANS AND INTO SERN NY/NRN NJ...WHILE A SECOND BAND ORIENTED
   W-E WAS LOCATED OVER CT/MA. DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF THE
   WSW...WITH SPEEDS INCREASING FROM 30 KT AT 6 KM AGL TO 60 KT AT 12
   KM AGL...PER AREA VWP/S AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WIND
   PROFILE COMBINED WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS POSING A THREAT FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. THREAT WILL LIKELY WANE AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS THIS EVENING AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE
   REGION.

   ..GARNER/KERR.. 07/23/2013

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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