Researchers from Colorado State University have released their updated 2013 Atlantic hurricane season outlook. The updated forecast continues to call for an above-average season in the Atlantic Basin, with a higher than normal probability of a United States or Caribbean major hurricane landfall. The new forecast is for 18 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. The researchers also estimate a 64% chance of a major hurricane striking the United States. The full-season average for the last century is 52%.
The following was taken from the abstract of the latest update. You can view the full update here.
Information obtained through July 2013 indicates that the remainder of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than the average 1981-2010 season. We estimate that the remainder of 2013 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.5), 14 named storms (average is 10.5), 75 named storm days (average is 58), 35 hurricane days (average is 21.3), 3 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.0) and 7 major hurricane days (average is 3.9). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall and Caribbean major hurricane activity for the remainder of the 2013 season is estimated to be above its long-period average. We expect the remainder of the Atlantic basin hurricane season to accrue Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity approximately 140 percent of the seasonal average. We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early April and early June, due to anomalous cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical and subtropical eastern Atlantic.
|ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2013|
|Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010
Median (in parentheses)
3 June 2013
|Named Storms (NS) (12.0)||18||18||4||14||18|
|Hurricanes (H) (6.5)||9||9||0||8||8|
|Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)||4||4||0||3||3|