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High likelihood Gulf of Mexico system becomes tropical cyclone

A disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico is intensifying as it heads for the eastern Mexico coast. The system is moving westward at 10 mph, and conditions are favorable for intensification. The National Hurricane Center is giving the system a 70% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before making landfall in Veracruz, Mexico on Monday.


Computer model forecasts for Invest 95

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 25 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAVE BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO TONIGHT OR
MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. 
INTERESTS IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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