The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring the potential for severe weather in the Northeast late in the workweek. Right now, it looks like conditions are marginal for strong to severe thunderstorms in interior Southern New England Thursday and Friday. The SPC has placed these areas in a 5% risk of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Thursday will be the result of a warm front moving through New England. Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday come courtesy of an approaching cold front. While the risk of severe weather is higher in inland Southern New England, thunderstorms are possible in all of SNE.
Thursday 8am – Friday 8am
...OH VALLEY INTO THE NERN STATES... AREAS OF STORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIKELY EXIST IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT FROM THE NERN STATES SWWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...CLOUD BREAKS SHOULD PROMOTE SUFFICIENT DIABATIC WARMING FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WITH 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER A PORTION OF THE NERN U.S. WHERE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ALONG SERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW MAY SUPPORT 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IMPOSED BY POSSIBLE AREAS OF EARLY CONVECTION...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A SLIGHT RISK IN LATER UPDATES.
Friday 8am – Saturday 8am
...OH VALLEYS AND NERN STATES... A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE AREAS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR IN THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSE SOME RISK FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTIES IMPOSED BY ONGOING CONVECTION AND MARGINAL WIND PROFILES PRECLUDE INTRODUCING MORE THAN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.