Lots of uncertainty regarding tropical invest 92
The tropical disturbance known as Atlantic INVEST 92 is moving over the Yucatan Peninsula. It will not strengthen over land, but there is still potential for it to strengthen once it emerges into the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is giving a 50/50 chance that this disturbance becomes a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, and a 60% chance that it develops into a tropical cyclone in the next five days.
As you can see from the computer model plots below, there is a lot of uncertainty about the track of the disturbance after it passes the Yucatan Peninsula. There are several computer models that bring it to the Gulf Coast of the United States, while other models track it west into Mexico.
Computer model forecasts for Invest 92
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS...HAS MOVED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED WHILE IT MOVES OVER LAND...BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WOULD ONLY FAVOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.