NOAA dials back hurricane season forecast slightly

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an update to the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Thursday, August 8, 2013. The forecast continues to call for an above-normal season in the Atlantic Basin, but the update has decreased odds of an extremely active season. The updated outlook has a 70% chance of an above-normal season.

  • 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
  • 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
  • 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

The pre-season outlook called for 13-20 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes, and 3-6 major hurricanes. The NOAA outlook does not offer any probability of hurricanes making landfall in the Caribbean or United States. A recent update from Colorado State University researchers calls for a 64% chance of a major hurricane striking the United States. The last major hurricane to strike the United States was Wilma on October 23, 2005 – nearly 8 years ago. This current stretch is the longest duration between major hurricane landfalls in the United States since record keeping began in 1851.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

Related Articles

Back to top button