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Northern Hemisphere tropical activity remains low

Erin was the fifth named storm of the season in the Atlantic Basin. While that is not a very low number through mid-August, none of the storms has reached hurricane strength, and the overall Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) remains well below normal in the Atlantic Basin.

As of August 21, the ACE in the Atlantic Basin is 7.65, compared to the normal year-to-date of 19. Even though the ACE is only 40% of normal so far this season, we are at a point in the season where 18.3% of the normal yearly ACE has occurred. Basically, the heart of the Atlantic hurricane season usually occurs in the next 5 weeks, so the very low ACE this season can be turned around in a hurry.

The current year-to-date Northern Hemisphere ACE is 56% of the normal. The Western and Eastern Pacific basins are both running well below normal.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)
Northern Hemisphere 113 201 562
Western Pacific 55.6 110 302
North Atlantic 7.65 19 104
Eastern Pacific 38.8 63 138
North Indian 5.378 7 18
Southern Hemisphere 191.827 209 209
Global 237.3 307 771

Data from
Southern Hemisphere season runs from October to June

NOAA 2013 forecast is for a very active ACE in the Atlantic Basin
NOAA 2013 forecast is for a very active ACE in the Atlantic Basin

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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