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SPC: 15% chance of severe weather in SNE Tuesday

The NOAA Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a slight (15%) risk of severe weather in Southern New England on Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The greatest severe weather threats are for strong straight-line winds and hail.

Regardless of the severe weather potential, localized heavy downpours similar to the kind that have occurred in recent weeks with thunderstorms are possible in Southern New England. 1-2″ of rain could occur in a short period, leading to street flooding.

The shower/t-storm threat is greatest from late in the morning through the afternoon. The amount of sunshine is one key to the potential for severe weather development in Southern New England. If clouds are thick, then there may not be as much of a severe t-storm threat – especially in the afternoon.

33,000,000+ people in the 15% risk of severe weather on Tuesday
33,000,000+ people in the 15% risk of severe weather on Tuesday
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013

   VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
   INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED INTO TUESDAY OVER MUCH
   OF THE CONUS VIA AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
   THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL EXIST
   OVER THE ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS.

   ...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES AND NEW ENGLAND...
   STEADY HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASINGLY
   STRONG CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW...WITH A LEAD UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER
   NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE A SECONDARY PORTION OF THE TROUGH
   AMPLIFIES/ACCELERATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD/OVER THE REGION
   ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE EXACT EXTENT OF EARLY
   DAY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED RAMIFICATIONS ON
   THE FRONT-PRECEDING WARM/MOIST SECTOR PROVIDES A MEASURE OF
   UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF THE MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF THE SEVERE
   RISK...ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK APPEARS
   WARRANTED.

   WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS...SURFACE BASED TSTMS SHOULD
   INCREASE/INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND/OR NEAR A POSSIBLE
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS. UNDER
   THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW...VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE
   MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS SOME
   HAIL.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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