The NOAA Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a slight (15%) risk of severe weather in Southern New England on Tuesday as a strong cold front approaches from the west. The greatest severe weather threats are for strong straight-line winds and hail.
Regardless of the severe weather potential, localized heavy downpours similar to the kind that have occurred in recent weeks with thunderstorms are possible in Southern New England. 1-2″ of rain could occur in a short period, leading to street flooding.
The shower/t-storm threat is greatest from late in the morning through the afternoon. The amount of sunshine is one key to the potential for severe weather development in Southern New England. If clouds are thick, then there may not be as much of a severe t-storm threat – especially in the afternoon.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT MON AUG 12 2013 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED INTO TUESDAY OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS VIA AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST STATES...WHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER THE ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. ...MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES AND NEW ENGLAND... STEADY HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG CYCLONIC MID-UPPER FLOW...WITH A LEAD UPPER LOW PIVOTING OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC WHILE A SECONDARY PORTION OF THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/ACCELERATES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD/OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE EXACT EXTENT OF EARLY DAY PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED RAMIFICATIONS ON THE FRONT-PRECEDING WARM/MOIST SECTOR PROVIDES A MEASURE OF UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF THE MAGNITUDE/EXTENT OF THE SEVERE RISK...ALTHOUGH A MARGINAL CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK APPEARS WARRANTED. WHERE SOMEWHAT STRONGER HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH STILL APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS...SURFACE BASED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE/INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND/OR NEAR A POSSIBLE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STRONGER/POTENTIALLY SEVERE MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL.