Tropical Depression Five strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin Thursday morning. The storm is near the Cape Verde islands off the coast of Africa and is moving west-northwest at 16 mph. Sustained winds are 40 mph, making it a minimal tropical storm.
Erin will move away from the Cape Verde islands today. Gradual strengthening is possible in the next couple of days. Many long range computer models have the storm weakening before reaching the Caribbean, and others have it taking a turn to the north away from the islands. It’s safe to say at this point that Erin is not much of a threat to any landmass.
Computer model forecasts for T.S. Erin
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013 800 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 25.6W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF BRAVA IN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIN. AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.6 WEST. ERIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERIN WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM... FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGER WINDS ARE LIKELY IN AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON THE ISLANDS. RAINFALL...ERIN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
