The cluster of showers and thunderstorms in the Eastern Caribbean looks better organized on Tuesday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center continues to watch it, and the forecast is for a 30% chance of it becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours, and a 50% chance of becoming one in the next five days. The disturbance will move west-northwest through the Caribbean in the next week, and may eventually reach the Bahamas as a tropical cyclone. At this point, it is no threat to the United States.
Computer model forecasts for Invest 97
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 200 PM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES WEST OF DOMINICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF THE GREATER ANTILLES COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO BY THURSDAY.
Do u think this one is OTS no matter if it develops or not?
It’s too early to say that. If it doesn’t get picked up by the approaching trough, then it needs to be watched closely, especially for SE US.