Computer Model Trends: Monday storm a watcher
It will be interesting to see what spins up off the SE coast north of the Bahamas in the next couple of days. I think it will be a named storm, probably sub-tropical. With a block in the jet stream, it’s possible the storm is steered far enough west to bring the western edge of the storm over eastern New England early next week. It’s a scenario we’ve been monitoring all week, and, at this point, it looks like it is 50/50 or better that, at least, eastern MA will have some rain and gusty wind on Monday as the storm passes.
It’s still a little early to talk specifics because of the uncertainty with the track, but, now, it does not look like a high impact event. It is not in the same league as the named storms (Irene/Sandy) of the past two years, but it could be gusty Nor’easter with rain if the track is a little closer and the storm a bit stronger than the current model consensus.
The Bottom Line
Keep an eye on this forecast for the next 24 hours. I’d say we will know by midday Saturday if the storm is going to hit New England. To reiterate, as it is now projected it is not a high impact event, but anything developing over the Gulf Stream at this time of the year could wind up stronger than now forecasted. A stronger storm with a closer track would be a headache for mariners and could cause some tree damage.