Computer Model Trends: PM Update
Well, it’s still there…the potential for a significant coastal storm early next week. The trend today has been farther east with the models that were west, and farther west with the models that were east. So, maybe they’re finding a middle ground. That middle ground, as of today, would have the storm bringing rain and wind to Southern New England Sunday night and Monday, with the worst weather on Cape Cod. Of course, that’s still five days away, and it’s too soon to talk specifics with the computer model spread yielding vastly different impacts (or lack thereof) depending on the track.
A few thoughts before the graphics….
- There will be a storm off the Southeast coast that moves north this weekend. The question is whether it will move north-northwest or north-northeast. North-northeast takes it out to sea with no impact.
- It is not a Sandy sequel, but could still be a formidable storm with damaging winds, coastal flooding and heavy rain – in a worst-case scenario.
- Tropical or not? Probably a hybrid storm. Most likely sub-tropical. It will develop as a baroclinic (cold core) storm but may take on tropical (warm core) characteristics while intensifying off the SE coast.
- My biggest concern at this point is the storm being more intense than currently projected by the models. If it takes on tropical characteristics in a favorable environment for development it could strengthen over the warm water of the Gulf Stream.
The Bottom Line
Still in wait and see mode. Don’t pull the boat, don’t bring in the lawn furniture. Those are the kind of calls that can be made on Thursday, and executed over the weekend, if necessary. By that point, there should be fewer questions about the storm’s track and intensity.
Today’s trend was farther east, and tonight’s ECMWF is eagerly anticipated. If it’s continues trending east, we’re in good shape. If it flip-flops west, then we most likely will have a storm to deal with.