Score one for the GFS? Not yet, but the models are trending toward the GFS solution more than the original European solution. At this point, all the models track the storm east of Southern New England. Most of the models have a minor impact, at worst, for Southern New England, with the best chance of wind/rain on Cape Cod and the islands. Also, the timing of the storm is a little later. It looks like it will pass Southern New England on Monday, leaving fair weather all weekend – regardless of how close it comes to the coast.
The bottom line
It looks like the upper low responsible for the development of the storm will be farther east and north than previously projected by the European. As a result, the storm has a better chance of escaping to the east away from the SNE coast. It is too early to sound the all clear, but the trend is definitely heading that way. We will update the computer model trends on Wednesday evening unless it is blatantly obvious that the storm will miss SNE completely.