A large area of unsettled showers and thunderstorms in the Easter Caribbean will continue moving west and may eventually become a tropical cyclone. The system is in the “slow cooker”, and intensification into a tropical cyclone is unlikely by midweek. By late week, however, the conditions may become more conducive to development as the disturbance moves to near the Bahamas.
Computer model forecasts for Invest 97
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.