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Humberto looking good, could be a hurricane Tuesday

Tropical Storm Humberto continues to gradually strengthen in the Eastern Atlantic Ocean. Maximum sustained winds Monday evening were 50 mph. The storm is no threat to land and is in an environment favorable for strengthening. The National Hurricane Center predicts Humberto will become a hurricane on Tuesday.

This hurricane season has been noteworthy because there has not been a hurricane among the first eight storms of the season. If Humberto becomes a hurricane before September 11, it will be the second latest date in the season that the first hurricane has formed in the Atlantic basin since 1950. Hurricane Gustav was the first hurricane of the 2002 hurricane season, forming on September 11.

Computer model forecasts for Tropical Storm Humberto

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092013
500 PM AST MON SEP 09 2013

...HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DISCONTINUED...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 25.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.3 WEST.  HUMBERTO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H.  A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH-NORTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF HUMBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND HUMBERTO COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

Fred Campagna

President and Chief Meteorologist - Right Weather LLC AMS Certified Consulting Meteorologist #756 AMS Certified Broadcast Meteorologist #126

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