
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK is closely monitoring a potentially volatile weather situation in the Northeast Thursday afternoon and night. A very warm, muggy airmass will give fuel for thunderstorms, and an approaching cold front may offer the spark necessary to set off strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds, torrential downpours, and frequent lightning. There is also a slight risk of tornadoes in the Berkshires and Northern New England.
Thunderstorms will be scattered and inland on Thursday afternoon. An organized line of storms will move through Southern New England Thursday night. It may weaken as it approaches the I-95 corridor and coast.

The following is a technical discussion on the severe weather potential in the Northeast from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...CONTRIBUTING TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PARENT LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT FROM SWRN ONTARIO SWWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS EWD/SEWD...EVENTUALLY REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY OVERTAKE A LEE TROUGH RESIDING FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC PIEDMONT REGION. ...NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... TSTMS ONGOING ALONG AND EAST OF THE LEE TROUGH FROM ERN PA/NJ NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY AS A SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS COMBINES WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO PROMOTE MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG. FARTHER W...INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING INTO THE OH VALLEY ARE SUPPORTING THE INTENSIFICATION OF A PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF TSTMS FROM THE FINGER LAKES OF NY INTO WRN PA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY UNDERGO FURTHER STRENGTHENING TODAY WHILE PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH A SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE STRONGEST MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW --AND RESULTANT VERTICAL SHEAR-- WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WHERE A MIXTURE OF MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WINDS. BASED ON THE CURRENT VAD DATA FROM PBZ...THE SRN EXTENT OF HIGHER-MOMENTUM TROPOPSHERIC FLOW EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS WRN PA...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO A FORWARD-PROPAGATING QLCS ACROSS NY/PA WHERE CORRIDORS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. MORE DISORGANIZED STORM MODES ARE ANTICIPATED SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE OWING TO DECREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND GENERALLY POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH-PW ENVIRONMENT AND POTENTIAL FOR WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS.