The disturbance in the Caribbean became Tropical Depression Seven Wednesday evening, and it may be Tropical Storm Gabrielle by early Thursday morning. The storm is moving slowly to the NNW at 2 mph and will bring flooding rain to Puerto Rico through Thursday. The long range forecast for the storm is to continue moving north-northwest to just east of the Bahamas by the middle of the weekend. The storm is expected to have 50 mph winds by that point.
Computer model forecasts for T.D. Seven
BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 800 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 66.2W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 2 MPH...4 KM/H. HOWEVER...A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY ON THURSDAY... NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER ON THURSDAY...AND MOVE EAST OF THE TURKS AND THE CAICOS ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD RESULT IN DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO OVERNIGHT...AND REACH THE WARNING AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY.
