The tenth tropical cyclone of the Atlantic hurricane season formed in the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, September 12, 2013. Tropical Depression Ten formed after crossing the Yucatán Peninsula and moving into the Bay of Campeche. The storm has winds of 35 mph and is moving very slowly to the west.
The forecast for TD 10 is for gradual intensification in the next few days. It may never become an extremely strong tropical storm, but that will not stop it from being a prolific rain maker in an area of Mexico that is prone to flash flooding and mudslides. Isolated 25″ rainfall amounts are possible in the hardest hit areas of eastern Mexico.
Computer model forecasts for T.D. 10
From the National Hurricane CenterTROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...EXTREME RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 93.6W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * COATZACOALCOS TO BARRA DE NAUTLA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.6 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. HOWEVER...A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS AROUND 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY.
