Tropical Storm Gabrielle is packing winds of just 40 mph, but the storm is moving very slowly and is bringing heavy rains to Puerto Rico and nearby islands. As of 8 AM Thursday, the center of the storm was between Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The storm is expected to move northwest with little change in strength in the next 48 hours. As the storm moves north it is expected to meet wind shear that may weaken it as it moves east of the Bahamas.
Right now, the long-range forecast for Gabrielle is for a turn to the north and northeast away from the United States. This track is highly dependent on the storm’s interaction with a trough of low pressure moving off the US East Coast this weekend. It is still possible that the storm does not get turned northeast by the trough. In that case, it would be meandering in the Atlantic Ocean east of the Bahamas early next week.
Computer model forecasts for T.S. Erin
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 800 AM AST THU SEP 05 2013 ...DISORGANIZED GABRIELLE STILL BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 67.4W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF PONCE PUERTO RICO ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO CABO FRANCES VIEJO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO CABO ENGANO INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.4 WEST. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE STORM SHORTLY. GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER SHOULD PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE LATER TODAY. GABRIELLE SHOULD THEN MOVE EAST OF THE TURKS AND THE CAICOS ISLANDS ON FRIDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY IN SQUALLS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. GABRIELLE IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...MAINLY IN A FEW SQUALLS...COULD REACH THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO THIS MORNING...AND COULD REACH THE WARNING AREA IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.