Long Range Forecast – October 10
October is running nearly 5° warmer than normal in the Providence area. The warmth has been buoyed by the fact that the low temperature for the month is 47° on October 1. Since then, the temperature has stayed at 50° or above everyday except one. Aside from Monday, the high temperature has averaged near normal for the past week. In the near term, the overnight low temperature will continue to be a above normal, and the high temperature will be near to slightly above normal. As we head into the last third of October, there will be more variability with a series of cold fronts in the forecast from Oct 19-26. There will be some cool shots behind the cold fronts, but the first frost of the season from the coast to Providence may not occur this month.
Precipitation-wise, most of the next week looks dry. A cold front will bring showers in the mid to late workweek next week. After that, a series of disturbances coming from the Great Lakes to the Northeast will threaten SNE with rain every few days.
The tropics will stay fairly quiet, and this season looks destined to be one of the least active in the past 50 years in regards to Accumulated Cyclone Energy. It’s safe to say the preseason forecasts for the tropics were busts.