We are one day closer to the potential midweek pre-Thanksgiving storm, but the computer models continue to disagree on how the weather in the Eastern United States will play out. The GFS is even farther offshore with a front delivering relatively light rain/snow to SNE Tuesday night, followed by a second storm that swings well out to sea on Wednesday into Thursday. The ECMWF continues to bring the storm close to or over SNE, with mainly rain. The Canadian model is even farther inland than the ECMWF. The NAM is trending inland, too – but only goes out to 84 hours. The JMA (Japanese) model was on board with that scenario yesterday, but now it looks a bit more like the GFS than anything else.
If it weren’t for the JMA, we’d be very confident in a rainy Wednesday forecast. As it is, we’re moderately confident that the storm will track close enough to SNE to bring steady, possibly heavy, rain on Wednesday.