A vigorous storm system that has produced tornadoes in the Midwest will move through New England late Sunday night into Monday morning. Tornadoes are not a threat for Southern New England, but the potential exists for damaging wind gusts in any heavy showers early Monday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has placed Southeastern New England in a 15% risk of severe weather – primarily strong winds of 58 mph or greater. The primary storm threat is from 5 am to 11 am from west to east in New England.
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2013 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING... ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LIFT RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND QUEBEC EARLY IN THE DAY 2 PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP LOW WILL MOVE NEWD INTO QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT ARCING SWD FROM THE LOW. THE FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL ME AND SRN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING SEWD/SWD OFF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST AND GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND... SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS OF 55-60F WILL SPREAD NWD INTO PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. DESPITE LIMITED BUOYANCY...FORCED ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR A LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES INTO THE MORNING OVER ERN PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR IF MUCH LIGHTNING WILL BE GENERATED WITHIN THE LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS /60-70 KT WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-3 KM AGL/ INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS TO OCCUR FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING BEFORE THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. ..WEISS.. 11/17/2013